I've been working on several detailed posts regarding Covid-19 and vaccines, but Mayo Clinic immunologist Dr. Greg Poland has a PowerPoint comprising the latest data (actual numbers from reliable sources!), and he is a bona fide expert, so all the better:
I set this video to start at 12m 40s, where the meat of the presentation begins, but I do recommend watching from the start if you don't mind the suggestion that some people are idiots and many more are damn fools. [Paging Dr. Weinstein: Dunning and Kruger are on Line 1.] Anyway, here's a summary for those who can't watch the entire hour or so. I'll re-watch this tonight and tomorrow, and add any important notes (and amend any errors in my summary) that arise. [Update: And fix my grammar. Jeebus!]
- The Delta variant has an R0 value (transmissibility) of 5-9 whereas the original Wuhan strain was at less (perhaps well less) than 2.0, with viral loads at 1,000 to 1,200x that of the original strain.
- Compared to vaccinated individuals, the unvaccinated in the US (all ages aggregated) are 3x as likely to get infected, 8x as likely to have symptoms, and 25x as likely to be hospitalized due to Covid-19.
- The Delta variant is more contagious, even for the vaccinated, than were previous strains, but the latest data show that vaccinated people exposed to Covid-19 have a lower viral load and the load diminishes rapidly compared to the unvaccinated. This means that they are almost certainly less contagious, and contagious for less time, than are unvaccinated people in the same situation. This is somewhat different from what we heard a few weeks ago, but remember that the first information we get is not always the best. Science is a matter of precision and detail; it requires time and fastidious care.
- If you don't get vaccinated, you will certainly get Covid-19, and it will be much worse for you than if you had been vaccinated. You also put everyone around you at greater risk. [Note: They surely didn't ask for that. – M.]
- In all age groups, the risks of Covid-19 vaccine side-effects are infinitesimal compared to the risks of remaining unvaccinated.
- Compared to the fully vaccinated, unvaccinated people who have recovered from Covid-19 (i.e., they have convalescent aka ‘natural’ immunity) are 2.34x as likely to become infected (reinfected, in their cases) and their cases are likely to be significantly worse.
- People who had Covid-19 should be immunized ninety days after they recover. There is some expert debate regarding whether those people should get one shot or two; the data seem to be pointing to the ‘2’, but more study is required.
- The only way to stop this pandemic is for everyone to get vaccinated and exercise caution when around other people. Dr. Poland strongly recommends vaccines, distancing, isolation (self-quarantine) of the sick, and mask-wearing. There are no effective and practical alternatives. (You could get infusions of monoclonal antibodies every ninety days, but, um ….)